Financial Times interviewed Ray Dalio on 20250902

 

Interview: Ray Dalio  專訪：雷·達利歐
The FT’s Q&A with the founder of Bridgewater Associates
《金融時報》與橋水基金創辦人的問答20250902

Financial Times: You’ve warned for years about America’s overwhelming debt burden. How do you see Donald Trump’s tax and spending promises affecting that trajectory? Is this time more sensitive than ever?
金融時報：您多年來一直警告美國面臨的龐大債務負擔。您如何看待唐納德·川普的稅收和支出承諾對這一趨勢的影響？現在是否比以往任何時候都更加敏感？

Ray Dalio: Yes. The worsened condition is due to years of excesses, like overeating fatty foods and smoking over a lifetime. The cumulative effects have brought about the current conditions, and the great excesses that are now projected as a result of the new budget will probably cause a debt-induced heart-attack in the relatively near future — I’d say three years, give or take a year or two. I’ll explain.
雷·達利歐：是的。惡化的狀況是由多年的過度行為所導致，

就像長期攝取高脂肪食物和吸菸一樣。累積效應帶來了當前的情況，而新預算案所預示的巨額超支，很可能在相對不久的將來——我認為大約三年左右，加減一兩年——引發一場由債務引起的心臟病發作。我來解釋一下。

The credit circulatory system is like the human circulatory system in that it brings nutrients to different parts of the body. If the credit and debt are used to create income that is large enough to service the debt, then the system is working well and healthy. But if the debt and debt service expenditures grow faster than the incomes, they build up like plaque that squeezes out other spending. It is easy to see that happening. The US government’s debt service payments now equal about $1tn a year in interest and are increasing at a fast rate, with about $9tn needed to roll over the debt. That squeezes out other spending. The more that happens, the closer the country is to a debt-induced economic heart attack. Also, when there is a lot of existing debt plus a lot of new debt that is being created to finance deficit spending, the supply of debt being sold is much greater than the demand for it. Over the next year, the federal government will spend about $7tn and take in only about $5tn, so it will have to sell an additional roughly $2tn in debt, in addition to the $1tn it has to sell to pay interest plus the $9tn it has to raise to roll over the debt. Things are likely to get worse than that because when creditors become worried about the debt assets not being good storeholds of wealth, they sell them. The demand for debt will unlikely keep up with the supply. That is a classic sign of the big debt cycle entering the traumatic last phase. At this stage in the cycle, the central bank must decide whether to allow interest rates to go up and have a debt default crisis, or to print money and buy the debt that others won’t buy to try to hold real interest rates down, which will lower the value of money. Another classic sign of coming to the turbulent end of the big debt cycle is central banks doing a lot of printing money and buying debt and then losing so much on the debt assets that they bought that, at that stage, both the central bank and the central government need to borrow more money. This leads to the central bank printing even more money to service the large debts that they have. By all the classic measures, we are late in the big debt cycle, and if those who shape policies don’t change policies, there will be a debt service problem coupled with a debt supply-and-demand problem that will cause a debt-induced economic heart attack.
信貸循環系統就如同人體的循環系統，它將養分輸送到身體各個部位。如果信貸與債務被用於創造足以償還債務的收入，那麼這個系統就能良好且健康地運作。但若債務與償債支出的增長速度超過收入增長，它們就會像血管斑塊般不斷堆積，擠壓其他支出空間。這種現象顯而易見——美國政府目前每年需支付約 1 兆美元的利息，且正快速增長，另有約 9 兆美元的債務需要展期。這將排擠其他支出，當情況越嚴重，國家就越接近由債務引發的經濟性心臟病發作。此外，當既有債務龐大，又因赤字支出而不斷新增債務時，債務供給量將遠超過市場需求。未來一年內，聯邦政府將支出約 7 兆美元，但稅收僅約 5 兆美元，這意味著除了需發行 1 兆美元債務支付利息，加上 9 兆美元債務展期需求外，還需額外發行約 2 兆美元債務。 情況很可能會變得更糟，因為當債權人開始擔心債務資產無法成為良好的財富儲存工具時，他們就會拋售這些資產。對債務的需求將難以跟上供應。這是大債務週期進入創傷性最後階段的典型跡象。在這個週期階段，中央銀行必須決定是允許利率上升並引發債務違約危機，還是印鈔購買其他人不願購買的債務，試圖壓低實際利率，這將導致貨幣貶值。大債務週期進入動盪尾聲的另一個典型跡象是，中央銀行大量印鈔購買債務，然後在他們購買的債務資產上損失如此慘重，以至於在這個階段，中央銀行和中央政府都需要借更多錢。這導致中央銀行印製更多鈔票來償還他們所持有的大量債務。 根據所有傳統指標，我們正處於大型債務週期的後期階段，如果政策制定者不調整政策方向，將會出現債務償付問題與債務供需失衡問題，這兩者結合將引發由債務導致的經濟心臟病發作。

FT: Trump has threatened to fire [US Federal Reserve] chair Jay Powell and recently ousted [Fed] governor Lisa Cook. How dangerous is it if the Fed loses its independence while debt is surging?
金融時報：川普曾威脅要開除聯準會主席鮑威爾，近期又撤換了聯儲局理事麗莎·庫克。在債務激增的情況下，聯準會失去獨立性將有多危險？

Dalio: The long tradition of central banks being independent from central governments’ political leaders has existed because of the widely held belief that the government leaders will be politically motivated to lower interest rates and make credit easier than is good for creditors because doing that will lower the real interest rates that the bondholders will get. That lowers the value of debt as a storehold of wealth, which reduces the demand for the debt and leads to problems. Because one man’s debts are another man’s assets, for the central bank to be effective, it has to keep real interest rates high enough to satisfy creditors without being so high that they hurt debtors. If the independence of the Fed is reduced to the point where investors think there is a high risk that interest rates [are] being unnaturally lowered so that bonds won’t be a good storehold of wealth, we will see an unhealthy decline in the value of money. The fact that this dynamic is arriving at the same time as international holders of dollar-denominated bonds are reducing their holdings of US bonds and increasing their holdings of gold due to geopolitical worries is also classically symptomatic of big cycle being in its late stages.
達利歐：中央銀行獨立於中央政府政治領導人的悠久傳統之所以存在，是因為人們普遍認為，政府領導人會出於政治動機降低利率並放寬信貸條件，這對債權人不利，因為這樣做會降低債券持有人獲得的實際利率。這會降低債務作為財富儲存手段的價值，從而減少對債務的需求並導致問題。由於一個人的債務是另一個人的資產，為了使中央銀行有效運作，它必須保持實際利率足夠高以滿足債權人，但又不能高到損害債務人。如果聯準會的獨立性降低到投資者認為利率被人為壓低的風險很高，以致債券不再是良好的財富儲存手段，我們將看到貨幣價值出現不健康的下跌。 這個動態恰逢國際美元計價債券持有者因地緣政治擔憂而減少美國債券持有量、增加黃金持有量，這也典型地顯示出大週期正處於晚期階段的徵兆。

FT: If a politically weakened Fed lets inflation “run hot” what does that mean for bonds, the dollar and America’s creditworthiness?
金融時報：如果一個政治實力被削弱的聯準會讓通膨「持續升溫」，這對債券、美元和美國的信譽意味著什麼？

Dalio: It would lead bonds and the dollar to go down in value and, if not rectified, it would undermine the confidence in the Fed defending the value of money and make holding dollar-denominated debt assets less attractive which would weaken the monetary order as we know it.
達利歐：這將導致債券和美元貶值，如果不加以糾正，將削弱人們對聯準會捍衛貨幣價值的信心，並使持有美元計價的債務資產變得不那麼有吸引力，從而削弱我們所知的貨幣秩序。

FT: Trump has taken a $10bn stake in Intel “for zero”, skimmed Nvidia and AMD’s China revenues, and imposed a golden share at US Steel. Do you see these as early signs of state capitalism with American characteristics?
金融時報：川普以「零成本」取得英特爾 100 億美元的股份，削減了輝達和超微在中國的收入，並對美國鋼鐵公司實施了黃金股。你認為這些是帶有美國特色的國家資本主義的早期跡象嗎？

Dalio: Yes. As a classic part of the big cycle, the increased wealth and values gaps lead to increased populism of the right and populism of the left and irreconcilable differences between them that can’t be resolved though the democratic process. At such times, democracies weaken and more autocratic leadership increases as a large percentage of the population wants government leaders to get control of the system to make things work well for them — eg, “to make the trains run on time”. In other words, strong autocratic leadership that sprang out of the desire to take control of the financial and economic situation.
達利歐：是的。作為大循環的一個典型部分，財富和價值觀差距的擴大導致右翼民粹主義和左翼民粹主義的興起，以及它們之間無法通過民主程序解決的不可調和分歧。在這種時候，民主制度會削弱，而更專制的領導力會增強，因為很大一部分人口希望政府領導人掌控體制，讓事情為他們順利運作——例如「讓火車準時運行」。換句話說，強烈的專制領導力源於掌控金融和經濟局勢的渴望。

Also, in a world in which there are great conflicts and possibly even wars between countries, governments increasingly take control of what businesses do. For example, it is now the case that whichever country wins the technology and economic wars will win the more important geopolitical and possibly military wars. So governments are now increasingly taking control of businesses and the economy. The part of the big cycle that we are in is most analogous to the 1928 to 1938 period.
此外，在一個存在重大衝突甚至可能爆發國家間戰爭的世界中，政府越來越多地掌控企業的行為。例如，現在的情況是，無論哪個國家贏得技術和經濟戰爭，都將贏得更重要的地緣政治甚至可能的軍事戰爭。因此，政府現在越來越多地掌控企業和經濟。我們目前所處的大循環階段最類似於 1928 年至 1938 年期間。

FT: Some call it authoritarian. Others say it resembles socialism. How would you characterise Trump’s economic model?
FT：有些人稱之為威權主義，也有人說它類似社會主義。您會如何描述川普的經濟模式？

Dalio: I’d rather not put labels on it because labels are evocative and lead to bad reactions. I’d rather try to explain the mechanics of what is happening in a less evocative way, so that is what I’m doing.
達利歐：我寧願不貼標籤，因為標籤容易引發聯想並導致不良反應。我傾向用較不煽動的方式解釋當前機制的運作，這正是我現在所做的。

FT: Do Trump’s moves risk undermining global confidence in Treasuries, the dollar and America’s debt sustainability?
FT：川普的行動是否可能削弱全球對美國公債、美元及美國債務永續性的信心？

Dalio: Yes, though I wouldn’t just attribute this situation to Trump’s moves. As mentioned, the dynamic that I am describing has been going on for a long time under presidents from both parties, though it started to intensify in 2008 and has accelerated since 2020.
達利歐：確實如此，但我不會將此情況完全歸因於川普的行動。如前所述，我描述的動態在兩黨總統任內已持續很長時間，雖說 2008 年開始加劇，並在 2020 年後加速發展。

FT: Do you see deregulation as a risk for the dollar’s reserve status?
金融時報：您是否認為放鬆監管對美元的儲備貨幣地位構成風險？

Dalio: No, but I do see the dollar and the other reserve currency governments’ bad debt situations as threatening to their appeals as reserve currencies and storeholds of wealth, which is what has been contributing to the rises in gold and cryptocurrency prices.
達利歐：不，但我確實認為美元和其他儲備貨幣政府的壞帳狀況，對它們作為儲備貨幣和財富儲存工具的吸引力構成威脅，這正是推動黃金和加密貨幣價格上漲的因素之一。

FT: Is the exposure that stablecoins have to Treasuries a potential systemic risk?
金融時報：穩定幣對美國國債的曝險是否可能成為系統性風險？

Dalio: I don’t think so. However, I see a fall in the real purchasing power of Treasuries as being a real risk. That shouldn’t produce any systemic risk in stablecoins if they are well-regulated.
達利歐：我不這麼認為。不過，我認為美國國債實際購買力的下降才是真正的風險。只要穩定幣受到良好監管，這不應該對它們產生任何系統性風險。

FT: Could crypto meaningfully replace the dollar, or does it pose different dangers altogether?
金融時報：加密貨幣能否實質取代美元，還是它完全帶來不同的危險？

Dalio: Crypto is now an alternative currency that has its supply limited, so, all things being equal, if the supply of dollar money rises and/or the demand for it falls, that would likely make crypto an attractive alternative currency. I think that most fiat currencies, especially those with large debts, will have problems being effective storeholds of wealth and will go down in value relative to hard currencies. This is what happened in the 1930 to 1940 period and the 1970 to 1980 period.
達利歐：加密貨幣現在是一種供應量有限的替代貨幣，因此，在所有條件相同的情況下，如果美元供應量增加和/或對美元的需求下降，這可能會使加密貨幣成為一種有吸引力的替代貨幣。我認為大多數法定貨幣，尤其是那些負債累累的貨幣，將難以有效儲存財富，並且相對於硬通貨會貶值。這正是 1930 年至 1940 年期間以及 1970 年至 1980 年期間發生的情況。

FT: When New York mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani floated socialist ideas, CEOs and billionaires reacted with fury. Why do you think the same people are silent when Trump undermines free enterprise?
FT：當紐約市長候選人佐蘭·曼達尼提出社會主義理念時，企業執行長和億萬富翁們憤怒回應。為何你認為當川普破壞自由企業時，同樣這些人卻保持沉默？

Dalio: I think that what is happening now politically and socially is analogous to what happened around the world in the 1930-40 period because, like in the 1930-40 period, the gaps in wealth, gaps in values and views about what policy should be have become more extreme — and the willingness to compromise, lose elections because of voting results, and trust in the system have dwindled. I am just describing the cause and effect relationships that are driving what is happening. And by the way, during such times most people are silent because they are afraid of retaliation if they criticise.
達利歐：我認為當前政治和社會的狀況類似於 1930 至 1940 年代全球發生的情況，因為就像 1930 至 1940 年代一樣，財富差距、價值觀差距以及對政策應有何種看法的分歧變得更加極端——而妥協的意願、因投票結果接受選舉失利、以及對體制的信任都已減弱。我只是在描述驅動當前局勢的因果關係。順帶一提，在這類時期，多數人保持沉默是因為他們害怕批評會招致報復。

FT: Is the real threat to American capitalism coming from the far left — or from Trump’s brand of interventionism?
FT：對美國資本主義的真正威脅是來自極左派——還是來自川普式的干預主義？

Dalio: It is coming from the same five forces that have always driven big cycle changes. They are 1) the big debt cycle that will probably lead to big debt problems that will threaten the existing monetary order, 2) big political problems within countries that are threatening existing political orders, 3) big geopolitical problems between countries that are threatening the existing world geopolitical order, 4) big acts of nature such as drought, floods and pandemics (most importantly climate change), and 5) mankind’s creating [a] big impact through new technologies, most importantly artificial intelligence. The interaction of these five forces will lead to huge and unimaginable changes over the next five years.
達利歐：這源自於一直以來驅動大週期變化的五種相同力量。它們分別是：1) 可能導致重大債務問題、威脅現有貨幣秩序的大債務週期；2) 各國內部威脅現有政治秩序的重大政治問題；3) 國家之間威脅現有世界地緣政治秩序的重大地緣政治問題；4) 乾旱、洪水和流行病等重大自然事件（最重要的是氣候變遷）；以及 5) 人類透過新技術創造的重大影響，最重要的是人工智慧。這五種力量的相互作用將在未來五年內帶來巨大且難以想像的變化。